“Calculus of Peace” def: Conflict only requires one participant to exist, actual peace requires all parties engaged.
It’s deep winter in the Hindu Kush and the Taliban hideaways in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Snows block the passes and mountain routes needed to carry out their insurgency against the National Government and NATO forces. Over the past 10 years, the Taliban has used winter to recruit, rebuild and re-arm, but this year there are some critical differences. Entire Taliban units, sometimes as large as 12-15 men, have been surrendering. This has not occurred since the rapid collapse of the Taliban Control of Afghanistan in 2002.
The National Government forces are operating deep inside areas previouslyconsidered safe havens for the Taliban. Even the drug lords are finding it harder to bribe soldiers at check stops. The aggressive use of armed and unarmed drones keep eyes in the are 24/7 and that makes it difficult for insurgents to gather or move in decive numbers to overun remote police or military garrisons. Even in light of some NATO members excelerating their exit strategy, significant US forces remain to continue the steady, intense pressure applied to Taliban forces. The population as a whole, is not enamored with the Taliban and the available fighters are spending more time working for the drugloards where the money is better.
So the Taliban are actually coming to Peace Tables in earnest. In addition, the high casulaty rate experienced by Taliban upper management and instability in Pakistan are forcing Taliban leadership to seek inroads with the Government in order to survive. If these overtures are indeed sincere, we may be edging towards the satisfying the calculus of peace requirement that both sides in conflict must desire peace in order for it to occur.
Whether Afghanistan can survive without conflict, well thats a different equation.
